How can international security agreements be enforced when one party fails to honor them?
I was asked that on Quora, and while it’s a short piece, the answer is, I think, worth posting here for all to read.
unless you want to go to war over it, they can’t. The Ukraine is the perfect example. Russia was a guarantor of Ukraine’s security and safety. So was the US. All of this in return for Ukraine turning over to Russia or decommissioning the nuclear weapons in Ukraine from the old USSR.
Well, we saw how that worked.
One of the guarantors invaded the guy they promised to protect, twice. The other one did nothing the first time, (because we had a string of bad presidents) and the second time has sent supplies, to little, too late, and with strings that say “you can’t use these to hit back in the country that invaded you, you can only use these on the land that was yours before they invaded.”
Really, short of war, the only thing you can do is trade sanctions, and embargos. That hasn’t worked any time it’s been tried on a totalitarian regime. So if you’re a nation seeking an international security assurance from another country, especially a country in the west, you have to ask yourself, would they really go to war for me? In some cases the answer is “yes” primarily if the guarantors have a huge vested interest in keeping you safe. For example Poland has a huge interest in keeping Estonia safe, because if Estonia were to fall, that would give the biggest bully in Europe (looking at you Russia) another flank to hit the Poles from, and there is a butt ton of trade between the two.
The US has no choice but to defend Canada, no matter what, because if Canada falls to an invasion, the border is so damn big, defending it would take more military troops than we have, and general conscription (every man woman and child, get a gun, and head for the Canadian border) would be our only choice.
Ukraine made several mistakes.
They disarmed, and trusted other nations to promise to take care of them. As an American I tell you that my nation can not be trusted to keep it’s word, if there is no vested interest involved. Our politics are such that when the “other” party comes into power, they will try to undo anything that their opponents did, just because “well fuck them, if they like it we are against it!”
Then they trusted Russia. Hello!!! Just exactly who did you think was going to attack you? Turkey? They’re too busy paying attention to the middle east, and their Muslim buddies. NATO??? Get real, NATO isn’t interested in attacking anyone, hell they aren’t really interested in defending anyone including themselves, by and large, they count on “big brother USA” to do any defending while they party and design a semi totalitarian socialist state system.
Then they didn’t tie themselves to the USA in any way that would make themselves irreplicable. Japan has ties to us that makes them vital to our interests. South Korea too, but to a slightly lesser level. The Anglosphere is too interrelated to us to allow us to leave them in the lurch in a war. The country’s people would not stand for it. Invade Great Britain and half of the US would stand up and scream.
Finally, in giving up their nukes, they threw away their only trump card. In general, people (except truly insane Muslims) don’t invade nations with nukes. The ever present knowledge that “well if they fall, they may pull down the temple as their last act” is enough for the rest of the world to do a “DUDE, are you crazy?” When someone talks about invading a nation with nukes.
OTOH, Zimbabwe Land for an extreme example? Most Americans could not find it on the map, and if they do know where it’s at, their attitude would be (as mine is) “fuck them, they’re commie bastards anyway, hope they all die.”
Oh there would be a very loud, and very vocal minority of less than 5% of the nation that would scream blue bloody murder, and demand that we do something, but they would be ignored, or given a sop of “well we’ll send them some rifles and some missiles, and hope for the best.”
What it comes down to, is if you can’t defend yourself, you need to find a Big Brother and make yourself irreplaceable to them.
There’s no international cop on the beat to protect you, the UN won’t do anything but talk, talk, talk, a lot of nations will “view with alarm…” But unless you have some raw material (like oil, or rare earths) that will give you some importance to the “Big Brothers of the World,” or some vital strategic placement, or have the market cornered on some vital commodity (like computer chips) and are willing to kiss some “Big Brother” ass (looking at you Kuwait, yeah you had vital oil, and you were willing to kiss American ass to save yourself.) See also the PI, and Taiwan.
Well, you better hope that the “Bullies of the World” (which also bear a very strong resemblance to the Big Brothers of the World because most of them are both) don’t decide that you’re a tasty looking morsel.
YIS
William Lehman