Wrong Answers

Hey welcome back, and for the new faces, good to see you. The beer and soda is in the mud room, the booze is on the counter next to the microwave, and dinner tonight is twice smoked ham, with a strawberry Merlo glaze, broccoli and cheese sauce, mashed potatoes and gravy, and creamed onions. The topic of conversation is solutions that cause more problems than they purport to fix.

Oh, and as always, please notice the cup at the tip jar Where we restock the bar. While you can do a paid subscription here at Sub stack, and it’s a welcome donation, Stripe (the folks that handle the money for sub stack) get a BIG cut. The Tip jar money all goes straight to me.

The first thing on my hit parade today started as a west coast thing, but if you are blessed enough not to live on the left coast, that doesn’t mean you’re out of the woods. They’re looking at your state too, trust me. Already on board is WA, OR, CA, NY, Mass, and NJ. (Yes, I know, those are the same morons that almost gave us ‘president Harris’.)

Yeah, you in the back, with the Save the Polar Bears shirt, I’m talking about you!

See, back in August of 2005, the never to be sufficiently damned morons in the Washington Legislature decided to pass a law surrendering their agency and their sovereignty to California. Now to be fair, in truth it was “follow CA law, or follow Federal law” but in the words of the warrior monk:

Before I explain why this was such a bad idea, (other than the fact that nothing good has come out of California since Ronnie Reagan) I need to mention another little fact that is interrelated. gov-inslee-imposes-wa-spending-freeze-amid-budget-shortfall/ See the state of Washington suddenly has a ‘cash flow problem.’ They raised their spending, counting on always being able to get more money… When that fell through, well, they find themselves ‘financially embarrassed’ as the saying used to go.

So, what I’m going on about, is the “Advanced Clean Truck regulations” that require any vehicle over 8,500 lbs to be zero emissions, or off set by other vehicles being sold by the same company that ARE zero emissions. The thought was that “well, if we make it illegal to sell these vehicles unless they’re battery powered, they’ll make them battery powered.” This sort of thinking is much like “Well, an irrational number is just too hard to deal with, so we’re going to make Pi equal to 3 by law.” The technology to make battery powered big trucks, and make them efficient enough to work, just doesn’t exist, (by and large, the key here is efficient enough to work.) and no amount of law making can change that.

The folks that are the most publicly up in arms over this are the RV industry. In Washington state, that’s a $155.7 million dollar a year in vehicle sales industry. Our sales tax is between 8.6% and 9.8% depending on where you live, so that’s roughly 14 million a year IN SALES TAX. After the first of this year, no vehicle over 8,500 lbs. with an engine made after Jan 1 2025 will be sellable and licensable as a new vehicle in the states mentioned above, unless the company sells an offsetting amount of zero emissions vehicles, which, as I mentioned, DON’T EXIST. The few that do, are made in guess where?

That’s right, China. They have range problems, catching on fire problems, takes too long to charge problems, oh and they’re sold by people that we’re probably going to end up in a shooting war with. It’s almost like California was run by our enemies… Naw, that couldn’t be, could it?

Well, what does that mean at the end of the day? It means people are going to be forced to either buy used, make their old one last longer, or buy out of state, and drive it for 7500 miles before registering it in one of the affected states.

Now, let’s look a little deeper… New engines run cleaner than old ones do. Fact of life. But if you can’t get new engines, then much like Cuba, you will keep the old, more polluting one, running for ever. Gosh, I don’t think that was their plan, but that’s what’s going to happen.

So far, we have:

1) loss of $14 million a year in sales tax, (and I’m too lazy to figure out the loss in annual registration funds for registering old vehicles instead of new ones, but it’s not insignificant.)

2) older, more polluting engines on the road, instead of newer cleaner burning ones. (Oh, and BTW, California sells five times as many RVs a year as WA, so guess what sort of a kick in the dick their tax base is going to get.)

In the immortal words of Billy Mays,

See, the RV industry is kicking primarily because their customers are often stuck living where they are; because of work, land ownership, etc. But they’re not the only ones affected.

Unfortunately, I can’t find data on state by state truck sales for medium and heavy duty trucks. Just federal stats. (And no stats for the smallest trucks affected, Class 2B, which is the ‘Three quarter ton pickup’ size, to include GM 2500s F-250s, Nissan Titan XD, Ram 2500, and the Tesla cybertruck, but there are electric models of those, so that’s about a wash.)

Well, let’s look at that. In 2020 sales (the last year reported) there were 349K class three (10K- 14K GVW) 22K class 4, 93K class 5, 52K class 6, 51K class 7, and 192K class 8 (big semis) For a total of 759,000 vehicles sold that will be illegal to sell in the future. Now just as a stab in the dark those trucks average over $100,000 a piece new. So, it’s a nearly $76 Billion dollar a year industry.

Even if the sales were equally distributed between the states (it’s not, it’s more based on population, so there’s more sales in the effected states, which are higher in population.) That comes out to $1.5 billion a year in truck sales, and with that 9% sales tax, that’s $136 million dollars in taxes.

Well, we’re now up to at least $150 million in lost sales taxes alone. We’re not through though. Because the trucking industry’s companies, unlike the customers that buy RVs, can (mostly, except for farmers, local delivery guys, tow truck operators and the like…) move their operation. Oh, they’ll still deliver to most of the states that are affected (California and NY are becoming so difficult to truck in that they may find themselves pariahs in the big truck world.) But the trucking company headquarters, where the drivers live, and where the trucks are bought, and licensed… Well, that may move “just across the nearest state border.” Now you are seeing MORE loss of revenue. Millions more. Loss of payroll tax, loss of vehicle registration money, loss of business taxes, well you get the picture.

Before this stupidity is over, we’re probably looking at half a billion in lost revenue or more. (And it’s probably way more.) The best hope, frankly, for the economies of the affected states, is President Trump. Last time he was in office, he tried to get rid of the CA environmental laws, and make it strictly national stuff. The courts shut him down. There are different courts now, and he may prevail on the argument that this really is an interstate commerce issue, in part because other states are following CA. We’ll see.

If you’ve bought a washing machine, a dishwasher, a toilet, or a shower head in the last few years, I feel your pain. Stuff doesn’t get clean, stuff doesn’t get dry, and you have to flush several times, just to get rid of yesterday’s Taco Bell. Why? Because our self-anointed lords and masters have mandated the new “environmentally friendly” water conserving versions of all of those things.

Water saving MY ASS.

If my 1.28 GpF toilet has to be flushed three times to get that mess moving on down the lines, it’s not a savings over my old 2.5 GpF toilet that flushed once, damn it.

Well, those idiots aren’t done screwing with us.

‘Megy Karydes’ some simpering idiot working for the NYT is all moist over the movement to reduce the size of the plumbing in your home. smaller-plumbing-pipes-and-increased-water- See the theory is that we’re supposed to “right size” our pipes and make them more efficient. She tells us that:

“Christoph Lohr, a mechanical engineer specializing in plumbing systems and the vice president of technical services and research for the International Association of Plumbing and Mechanical Officials,” (who of course would be reliable on this, because the trade organization for plumbers would never advocate something that will make them billions, at the cost of our comfort and efficiency…) most plumbing fixtures in the U.S. are designed to accommodate total flow rates far higher than they will realistically encounter. He assures you that “Installing more efficient products works.” (Uh, bullshit.)

There’s a lot of BS in here from the CDC (remember them? The mask guys?) about how Legionella is going to grow in your pipes if you don’t use smaller diameter stuff, and how while the pipe is more expensive, the shipping cost is less, so you’ll save money… (color me dubious) And REALLY, it’s for the greater good!!!

Well, I’ve had to learn a lot over the years about things like Laminar v Non-laminar flow, and Boyles law, and other things that govern hydraulics. The smaller the diameter for the same flow rate, the more the resistance to flow, the more the loss of energy, the higher the initial pressure the more you will lose with distance… Oh and let’s not forget that if your water supply system can’t maintain the pressure for what ever reason, the already ineffective “low flow” systems are going to work even worse.

Just say NO.

On the medical and crime front, I see that someone just gunned down the CEO of UnitedHealthcare outside a hotel in Manhattan where he was holding a conference. Apparently it was a “targeted shooting” according to the government of NY. Gosh. What a shame. I can’t imagine any reason why someone would gun down the guy behind the WONDERFUL health care insurance system that is UnitedHealthcare. (Damn, I think I just strained my tongue, and the inside of my cheek. Give me a second.)

Oh, Gosh. Well anyway…

The perp took off on a bicycle, apparently there’s some video… one hopes it’s of poor quality. I won’t be attending the funeral, but I may send a letter approving the event. I hear that his insurance wouldn’t cover the attempts at resuscitation, as being soulless was a pre-existing condition.

And then of course there’s the wrong decision that’s on everyone’s lips, the Hunter pardon. What seems to be coming out, is that: “I won’t pardon Hunter” actually meant: “I won’t pardon Hunter, in this term, I’ll wait until next term” and then “I’ll let Harris do it when she’s elected.” Until that fell through with a resounding ‘THUMP.’

Well, so in issuing the pardon, of course, as his own party has pointed out, he’s destroyed anything like a ‘high ground’ from which to condemn Trump for pardoning the J-6ers, and fueled Trump’s case that the DOJ has become a political cesspool, within the swamp, within the bog of eternal stench that is D.C.

But that’s not all. Here’s a fun thing, because that Alzheimer’s patient decided to do a Blanket Pardon for ALL CRIMES committed, charged or not, from the day the Betty Ford Recovery Center escapee took his gig with Burisma; Hunter no longer has a fifth amendment shield to hide behind. A dedicated prosecutor could trip Hunter up on the stand, (can’t plead the fifth if you are already pardoned, sir. Testify or go to jail for contempt, lie and go to jail for perjury.) Oh, and of course, Presidential pardons don’t cover state crimes. This shit ain’t over: oversight.house.gov/blog/evidence-of-joe-bidens-involvement-in-his-familys-influence-peddling-schemes/

Look, I understand why a father would want to save his kid from jail… I have two kids, and three grandkids, I get it. The trouble (from Biden’s perspective) is that not only can/will this backfire on him in a couple ways, but the behavior evidenced, of ‘daddy’ bailing out the kid when ever he fucks up, is a significant reason why Hunter is the waste of flesh that he is. Poor little rich connected bastard has never had to face the results of his behavior in his life.

You also ruined your staff’s already garbage credibility by making them all liars, you’ve shot the whole DNC in the dick, and probably pissed off a bunch of the press that’s been hauling water for you.

Bravo, Joe. Slow clap.

Speaking of Joe’s people, the US Solicitor General, in a brief to SCOTUS on United States V Skrmetti (The case regarding the legality of sexually mutilating teenagers based on their, or their parent’s, mental illness) made the following argument:

“If, for example, a State prohibits an adolescent assigned female at birth from receiving testosterone to live as a male, but allows an adolescent assigned male at birth to receive the same treatment, the State has relied on a sex-based classification—and thus must justify its law under heightened scrutiny.” Note the “assigned” piece. Apparently, to Elizabeth Prelogar (the idiot in question) looking down at the new born baby and seeing a cock doesn’t make the kid male, he’s “assigned” that, as if it was just the doctor’s random decision.

Yes, I know there are people born with both sets of plumbing… that’s less than .0001 percent of the population.

We need to quit making laws for the rounding errors. We have judges to take into account the exceptional circumstances in that tiny number of cases.

The same judge that decided to stick her nose in the last time Tesla voted to give their CEO the richest set of performance tied bonuses in history, has done it again. It seems that she knows better than the super majority that voted to give Elon massive performance tied bonuses, what is good for them.

Not only did she rule the package illegal, but awarded the lawyers trying to kill it 100 million dollars for their trouble. Expect this shit to get appealed.

Sal had three great posts this week, I suggest you go and read them all: when-your-vls-hobbyhorse-goes-mainstream , syrias-jenga-tower? And anchor-what-anchor? About the asymmetric act of war by China against NATO.

QOTD "You have to admire the raw chutzpah of Biden lying for months about pardoning Hunter, and then concluding his statement about pardoning Hunter with the line, 'For my entire career I have followed a simple principle: Just tell the American people the truth.'" —Charles C.W. Cooke

Yours in Service,

William Lehman